Two Russian MiG-31K fighter jets were transferred to Belarus this week, a move that could indicate Russia’s efforts to protect its warplanes amid escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russian air bases, writes The Kyiv Independent on Saturday.
The two fighter aircraft had not been seen in Belarus since April 2023.However, on Thursday, October 10, a MiG-31 capable of carrying Kinjal ballistic missiles (’Dagger’) landed at Machulishchy airfield in Belarus, followed by a second aircraft, according to Hajun, a Belarusian defense monitoring group.
The latest recorded movement of the aircraft occurred on Thursday at 15:10 local time when both jets took off from the airfield.Their current location is unknown, although representatives from Hajun noted they could still be in Belarus, as reported to the publication in Kyiv.
Russian Objectives Behind the Fighter Jet Transfer
The unexpected arrival of the two warplanes has sparked speculation among Ukrainian officials and military experts.
One possible reason for the transfer of the aircraft to Belarus is that Russia is trying to protect them after successful Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian airfields, said Peter Layton, an associate researcher at RUSI, a visiting researcher at Griffith Asia Institute, and a former officer in the Royal Australian Air Force.
’There is only a limited number of MiG-31s – keeping them safe is crucial,’ Layton told The Kyiv Independent.
’The MiG-31s could be stationed in Belarus and then fly into Russian airspace to launch their missiles (at Ukraine), and afterward return to Belarus, where they are believed to be safer,’ the researcher clarified.
At the beginning of the large-scale invasion, Russia reportedly had 12 MiG-31 aircraft in its military service.However, Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian airbase at Savasleika on August 16 destroyed at least one MiG-31 and may have damaged another, a source from Ukrainian military intelligence told the publication in Kyiv.
Two additional attacks also targeted Russian MiG-31 aircraft.One was a strike on the Savasleika base on August 13 that damaged one aircraft, and the attacks on May 15 against the Belbek airfield in the annexed Crimea damaged or destroyed two MiG-31s.
Strategic Importance of MiG-31 Aircraft on the Battlefield
Despite these losses, Russia is still able to replenish its warplane fleet, according to Bohdan Dolintse, director of the Institute for Management and Strategies, although repairing damaged aircraft could take up to a year.
These MiG-31s can fly at speeds of up to 3,000 kilometers per hour and can launch Kinjal missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers, posing a threat to all of Ukraine.
Stationing them in Belarus also positions them closer to the front line, effectively extending their operational range, Layton pointed out.
The Belarusian group Hajun suggested that the two MiG-31s could undergo system checks in Belarus.There is also the scenario in which the warplanes may participate in exercises and tests alongside the Belarusian Air Force.
Preparation for a New Major Attack on Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure
Another possibility is that Russia is preparing for a new major attack on Ukraine, similar to the mass strikes conducted on August 26, which devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, said reserve Major Oleksii Hetman from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Given that a significant part of Ukraine’s air defense cannot intercept aircraft launching Kinjal missiles, air raid alerts are triggered across the country whenever a MiG-31 takes off.Only the Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems are capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles.
On September 25, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned the UN Security Council that Russia is preparing an attack on three nuclear power plants as part of a strategy to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid before winter.
Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, believes that Russia might also be preparing a provocation against Belarus to blame Kyiv.
He cited the incident on October 4, when a Russian drone exploded near the Mozyr oil refinery, close to the Ukrainian border.’After the strike by the Russian Shahed drone (an Iranian-manufactured kamikaze drone) near Mozyr, it became clear that Russia could be preparing a provocation aimed at Belarus,’ Kovalenko wrote in a message published on the messaging app Telegram.
